近十年来我国气候变暖影响研究的若干进展   总被引：51，自引：12，他引：51       下载免费PDF全文

王馥棠 《应用气象学报》2002,13(6):755-766

近年来，我国政府和科技界十分关注气候王馥棠变暖对我国经济发展可能影响的评估, 开展了许多重大项目和课题的研究。该文仅就气候变暖对我国自然植被、农业、森林、水资源、能源利用和区域海平面上升等领域影响评估研究的若干有意义的初步结果简要归纳和评述如下:取自不同GCM模型的未来气候变化情景下的影响评估模拟表明，我国的特征性自然植被类型将会发生明显的变化。同当前气候（1951~1980年）下的模拟分布相比，到2050年我国几乎所有地方的农业种植制度均将发生较大变化；气候变暖将导致复种指数增加和种植方式多样化，但降水与蒸散之间可能出现的负平衡和土壤水分胁迫的增加以及生育期的可能缩短，最终将导致我国主要作物的产量下降。气候变暖对我国水资源最明显的影响将会发生在黄淮海流域，这个区域的水资源供需短缺将大大提高。同时，气候变暖将改变我国室内取暖和降温的能源需求关系:北方冬季取暖的能源消耗将减少, 而南方夏季降温的能源消耗将会增加。海平面的上升将使我国三个主要沿海低洼脆弱区，即珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和黄河三角洲，面临部分遭受海水淹没的威胁。  相似文献   

A methodology for the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi Flegrei (Italy)     

I. Alberico  L. Lirer  P. Petrosino  R. Scandone 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2002,116(1-2)

The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km² caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.  相似文献   

Sediment yield and storage variations in the Négron River catchment (south western Parisian Basin,France) during the Holocene period     

Jean‐Jacques Macaire  Saïda Bellemlih  Christian Di‐Giovanni  Patrick De Luca  Lionel Visset  Jacques Bernard 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2002,27(9):991-1009

In the Négron River catchment area (162 km²), surface‐sediment stores are composed of periglacial calcareous ‘grèze’ (5 × 10⁶ t) and loess (21 × 10⁶ t), and Holocene alluvium (12·6 × 10⁶ t), peat (0·6 × 10⁶ t) and colluvium (18·5 × 10⁶ t). Seventy‐five per cent of the Holocene sediments is stored along the thalwegs. Present net sediment yield, calculated from solid discharge at the Négron outlet, is low (0·6 t km^?2 a^?1) due to the dominance of carbonate rocks in the catchment. Mean sediment yield during the Holocene period is 7·0 t km^?2 a^?1 from alluvium stores and 7·6 t km^?2 a^?1 from colluvium stores. Thus, the gross sediment yield during the Holocene period is about 18·7 t km^?2 a^?1 and the sediment delivery ratio 3 per cent. The yield considerably varies from one sub‐basin to another (3·9 to 24·5 t km^?2 a^?1) according to lithology: about 25 per cent and 50 per cent of initial stores of periglacial grèze and loess respectively were reworked during the Holocene period. Sediment yield has increased by a factor of 6 in the last 1000 years, due to the development of agriculture. The very high rate of sediment storage on the slope during that period (88 per cent of the yield) can be accounted for by the formation of cultivation steps (‘rideaux’). It is predicted that the current destruction of these steps will result in a sediment wave reaching the valley floors in the coming decades. Subboreal and Subatlantic sediments and pollen assemblages in the Taligny marsh, where one‐third of the alluvium is stored, show the predominant influence of human activity during these periods in the Négron catchment. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

灌淤土壤可溶性盐分空间变异性与棉花生长关系研究   总被引：8，自引：3，他引：8  

杨玉玲  田长彦  盛建东  文启凯 《干旱区地理》2002,25(4):329-335

运用地统计学方法，在灌淤土壤上进行了棉田土壤可溶性盐分的空间变异规律与棉花生长关系系统研究。传统统计学分析表明土壤盐分测试数据基本符合正态分布；在一定取样间距下，土壤可溶性盐分的田间合理取样数目为27。半方差分析显示：土壤可溶性盐分具中等的水平变异性，但随着聚样深度的增加未表现出明显的垂直变异特性；随着棉花的生长发育，土壤可溶性盐分呈现出逐渐减弱的时间变异规律，采用直线或曲线拟合方程估计了可溶性盐分的半方差图及其参数，并绘制了其相应的等值线图。土壤可溶性盐分与棉花产量之间的相关分析表明：可溶性盐分含量与棉花产量之间呈显著负相关关系，且花铃期的相关性较播前显著。研究结果为提高田间试验有效性以及盐渍化土壤改良提供了科学依据与基础资料。  相似文献   

Palaeolimnology of Lake Piene-Kuuppalanlampi (Kurkijoki, Karelian Republic, Russia): isolation history, lake ecosystem development and long-term agricultural impact     

Juha Miettinen  Elisabeth Grönlund  Heikki Simola  Pertti Huttunen 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2002,27(1):29-44

The post-glacial history of Lake Pieni-Kuuppalanlampi, western Lake Ladoga region, was studied by means of stratigraphic pollen and diatom analyses. Diatoms were analysed to track the isolation history of the basin and the limnological effects of the early land-use phases indicated by pollen analysis. Chrysophycean stomatocysts and Isoëtes spores were also employed in the limnological reconstructions. Sediment dating was provided by six conventional radiocarbon dates.The lower part of the 370-cm long sediment sequence represents early Holocene, large lake conditions: the (freshwater) Yoldia and Ancylus stages of the Baltic basin, with a short-term lagoonal or isolation phase at the end of Yoldia. The basin was isolated due to Ancylus lake regression at 9785 cal B.P. For the small-lake sequence (0–250 cm) we used diatom inferences (WA-method) for hindcasting water chemistry. The post-isolation limnology of Pieni-Kuuppalanlampi reflects the development of vegetation on its small hill-top catchment. In its early development, the lake was mesotrophic, but became more acidic (pH about 6) and oligotrophic after the decline of temperate hardwood trees and the spread of spruce to the area after around 5000 B.P. The lake ecosystem appears to have reacted sensitively to agricultural land-use in the catchment from AD 400–800 onwards: inferred total phosphorus levels and pH both rise during these periods.  相似文献   

Erosion response to anthropogenic activity and climatic changes during the Holocene: case studies in northwestern China and southern Norway     

HE Xiubin  TANG Keli  John A Matthews  Geraint Owen 《地理学报》2002,12(4):467-471

Soil erosion assessment and prediction play critical roles in addressing problems associated with erosion control or soil conservation. The past dynamics of soil erosion can provide valuable information for us to understand the relations of soil erosion to environmental change and anthropogenic activity. The present paper has compared Holocene climatic changes in northwestern China with those in southern Norway, and investigated the past dynamics of erosion activity during the Holocene. Modern soil erosion on the Loess Plateau is a combination of the intensive natural erosion and human-induced erosion, the latter being four times greater than the former. Because of global warming and increasing human activities, climate on the Loess Plateau is becoming dryer and more unstable, causing an enhanced erosion problem and water scarcity. In the arctic-alpine region of southern Norway, however, the global warming and regional wetting caused expansion of the largest European ice cap. This has accentuated the erosion in that region, with a higher frequency of avalanches and debris flows.  相似文献   

Natural environmental changes and human impact reflected in sediments of a high alpine lake in Switzerland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

C. Ohlendorf  M. Sturm  S. Hausmann 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2003,30(3):297-306

From the high alpine Sägistalsee (1935 m a.s.l.), 13.50 m of continuously laminated sediments comprising the last 9050 years, were analyzed. Even though Sägistalsee is a high elevation site, human-induced environmental changes start as early as 4300 cal. BP and leave a clearly detectable signal in the mineralogy of the sediments, which is much stronger than the signal from natural environmental changes that occurred before this time. Variations in the physical and mineralogical sediment properties of this clastic sequence reflect erosional changes in the catchment, where almost pure limestone contrasts with carbonaceous, quartz-bearing marl, and shist. The calcite/quartz (Cc/Qz) ratio was found to be most indicative of these changes, which occurred around AD 1850 and at 650, 2000, 3700, and 6400 cal. BP. The first four are interpreted as erosion events, which are related to human-induced changes in the vegetation cover and land use. We associate them to the recent development of tourism and grazing, the medieval intensification of pasturing, Roman forest clearance, and Bronze Age forest clearance, respectively. The Cc/Qz-ratio increases significantly within less than 100 years during these events, reflecting the erosion of unweathered or poorly weathered soils. The time intervals in between are characterized by a gradually decreasing Cc/Qz-ratio and reflect the stabilization or formation of new soils. Only the change at 6400 cal. BP, which represents the initial gradual stabilization of the catchment, is related to the immigration of Picea abies.  相似文献   

全球气候变化及其影响   总被引：20，自引：2，他引：20       下载免费PDF全文

雷·Wen  查尔斯·A·Lin 《水科学进展》2003,14(5):667-674

全球气候变化及其对社会与自然系统产生的影响已日益受到全世界各国政府与广大民众的关注。与天气和气候有关的灾害给人类生命财产造成的损失日益增大,社会与生态系统似乎变得日趋脆弱。人们关心刚刚过去的20世纪的天气与气候发生了什么变化,更希望了解未来的21世纪,人类居住的地球会出现什么样的气候情景。根据一些国家和地区的观测记录、研究成果以及科学家们对气候变化的评估与预测展望,对全球气候变化问题进行概括。首先阐明20世纪地区性气候变化的事实;并根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)科学技术报告中关于20世纪全球气候变化进行的总结性评估以及对21世纪全球气候变化的预测,作为阐述过去与未来全球气候变化的主要依据。同时,还介绍了一些科学家对IPCC关于全球气候变化的结论所持的不同观点或质疑。还就气候变化对社会与自然系统可能产生的影响略作论述。  相似文献   

Morphological analysis of active Mount Nemrut stratovolcano, eastern Turkey: evidences and possible impact areas of future eruption     

Erkan Aydar  Alain Gourgaud  Inan Ulusoy  Fabrice Digonnet  Philippe Labazuy  Erdal Sen  Hasan Bayhan  Turker Kurttas  Arif Umit Tolluoglu 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2003,123(3-4):301-312

Mount Nemrut, an active stratovolcano in eastern Turkey, is a great danger for its vicinity. The volcano possesses a summit caldera which cuts the volcano into two stages, i.e. pre- and post-caldera. Wisps of smoke and hot springs are to be found within the caldera. Although the last recorded volcanic activity is known to have been in 1441, we consider here that the last eruption of Nemrut occurred more recently, probably just before 1597. The present active tectonic regime, historical eruptions, occurrence of mantle-derived magmatic gases and the fumarole and hot spring activities on the caldera floor make Nemrut Volcano a real danger for its vicinity. According to the volcanological past of Nemrut, the styles of expected eruptions are well-focused on two types: (1) occurrence of water within the caldera leads to phreatomagmatic (highly energetic) eruptions, subsequently followed by lava extrusions, and (2) effusions–extrusions (non-explosive or weakly energetic eruptions) on the flanks from fissures. To predict the impact area of future eruptions, a series of morphological analyses based on field observations, Digital Elevation Model and satellite images were realized. Twenty-two valleys (main transport pathways) were classified according to their importance, and the physical parameters related to the valleys were determined. The slope values in each point of the flanks and the Heim parameters H/L were calculated. In the light of morphological analysis the possible impact areas around the volcano and danger zones were proposed. The possible transport pathways of the products of expected volcanic events are unified in three main directions: Bitlis, Guroymak, Tatvan and Ahlat cities, the about 135 000 inhabitants of which could be threatened by future eruptions of this poorly known and unsurveyed volcano.  相似文献   

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC SULFATE IN CLIMATE CHANGE BY USING A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

高学杰  林一骅  赵宗慈 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2003,9(2):173-180

1 INTRODUCTION Being an important composition of the atmosphere, aerosol attracts increasing attention from the scientific community in recent years, together with the radiative forcing it causes and effects it imposes on the climate system. The anthropogenic aerosol affects the climate both directly and indirectly. The climate is directly affected when solar shortwave radiation is scattered and absorbed in what is known as the 搖mbrella effect? which can be dated back to as early as mor…  相似文献